装备体系核心保障能力分析

明确了装备体系和核心保障能力的概念内涵。针对核心保障能力的评价问题,从评价参数和评价方法两个方面入手,系统整理了国内外开展关于核心保障能力的问题特点和研究进展,总结了现有研究成果,通过对照比较,指出了现有研究中存在的不足之处。在此基础上,从装备体系核心保障能力评价问题的外军研究成果、基础理论、系统分析和保障仿真技术4个方面,提出了后续的研究建议,对于相关科研人员具有参考和借鉴意义。     

美军维修改革发展研究

维修保障是武器装备形成战斗力的关键要素。随着国际形势和美国国内经济、科技等方面的发展变化,美军的维修策略、维修技术以及维修保障信息化等方面也在不断变革。总结了2000年前后至今,美军在维修保障方面的重大变革,对其发展趋势进行了预测,并结合我军装备保障实际,积极探索切实可行的有效对策。     

SVM在空中目标威胁值评估中的应用

构建了基于回归型支持向量机的空中目标威胁值评估模型,确定了基于粗糙集理论的空中目标威胁因素,并建立了数据离散化、归一化的标准。将常用的4种核函数应用于对空中目标威胁值的估计,并通过基于网格法和遗传算法的搜索方法找到模型的最优参数。最后通过Matlab对算例进行了仿真验证。     

区域联合作战装备保障任务分配模型

现代信息化战争是体系与体系的对抗,区域作战联合装备保障成为信息化条件下装备保障的主要方式,实施科学正确的装备保障指挥,进行保障任务分配对于提高保障效益具有非常重要的意义。通过区域作战装备保障任务的特点,依据区域保障要求建立了包括转场时间在内和不同作战方向上作战单元的重要程度不同的装备保障任务分配模型,保证了重要方向上最晚完成保障任务的作战单元保障时间最短和非重要方向上最晚完成保障任务的作战单元保障时间最短。最后,应用遗传算法给出了区域联合作战装备保障任务分配模型的求解方法和步骤,具有一定的科学性和实用性。     

基于改进支持向量回归机的火炮身管寿命预测

为准确预测火炮身管寿命终止时火炮射弹数,根据射击过程中火炮身管磨损量与身管寿命特性,分析了身管膛线起始部磨损量与身管射弹数之间的关系,提出了支持向量回归机算法,并采用遗传算法进行模型优化改进,得到火炮身管寿命预测最优模型。结合两种类型火炮的身管数据,利用该模型对身管寿命进行预测,并与原始支持向量回归机进行对比,通过分析可知改进的支持向量回归机预测效果好、精度高,为火炮在实际应用中身管的寿命预测提供了新的思路。     

United Nations rapid reaction mechanisms: Toward a global force on standby?

This article analyses the main challenges and future prospects of creating United Nations (UN) rapid reaction mechanisms, particularly in the light of past attempts and current discussions about a “UN Vanguard Force” in the wake of the High-Level Panel on Peace Operations report. The article reviews major initiatives (in particular lessons from the Standby High Readiness Brigade for UN Operations) and assesses the main achievements, failures, and challenges related to past UN-led rapid reaction mechanisms. In line with the overall aim of this special forum, the article highlights the future potentials and institutional, operational, financial, and political challenges that need to be overcome in order to design and create a pragmatic and effective rapid reaction tool at the disposal of the UN.     

Military deployment and international terrorism: do location and mission type matter?

Extant literature documents a relationship between military deployment and the risk of an international terrorist attack against citizens of the deploying country. It appears that deployment significantly increases the possibility of terrorist actions in the home country. In particular, if country A decides to send troops to nation B, then citizens of the former country are more likely to fall victim of an attack carried out by a terrorist organisation originating from the latter country. Contributing to this line of literature, we further refine this relationship by distinguishing between regions where the troops are sent as well as by introducing differences between types of deployment. Our results indicate that missions to Asia and the Middle East are more dangerous than missions to other regions as reflected by the terrorist threat in the home country. Robustness tests do however show that the significance of the location variable Asia is predominantly attributed to the mission to Afghanistan. As for types of deployment, only ad hoc missions seem to increase the risk of an attack, whereas no significant results are found for other missions such as operations under UN and NATO flag. Leaving out the missions to Iraq and Afghanistan however also increases the danger resulting from missions by fixed coalitions. Our results find however no evidence that ‘wearing a blue helmet’ increases the probability of a terrorist attack at home.     

美国空军装备技术体系规划及发展分析

在新军事变革的局面下,装备体系化发展已成为必然趋势。本文在分析美军"技术地平线"规划研究及"技术地平线"发布后8年来美军重要装备发展情况的基础上,总结美空军技术顶层规划及装备体系研制成功经验,提出了我国未来装备体系建设的方向和建议,为新时期促进我国装备体系建设顶层科学规划,促进装备体系、技术体系、能力体系发展提供参考。     

运用“五种思维”提升部队指挥员应急处置能力

运用底线思维、辩证思维、创新思维、战略思维和历史思维五种思维有效提高部队指挥员应急处置的安全防控能力、决策能力、应变能力、控制能力和学习能力。     

航空弹药供应保障存在的问题及对策

在现代高技术信息化战争中,航空弹药地位和作用日渐突出。在分析了信息化条件下现代战争对航空弹药供应保障提出的新需求基础上,指出了航空弹药供应保障存在的不足,并从航空弹药的储备、管理和供应三个方面分别提出了相应的对策。研究表明,着眼应急作战的实际需要,搞好航空弹药供应保障,提高应急作战弹药供应保障能力,是摆在面前的一个现实而又紧迫的任务。